Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 4.008145 4.707804 5.482366 6.401880 7.462085 8.644496 10.061443
2025-09-07 2.973873 3.924232 5.090909 6.621049 8.566751 10.949261 14.077715
2025-09-14 2.259814 3.291698 4.673487 6.641809 9.352923 12.931847 17.985301
2025-09-21 1.785296 2.833306 4.345672 6.656722 10.060763 14.843507 22.011608
2025-09-28 1.448852 2.482032 4.075015 6.663663 10.704745 16.694391 26.138043
2025-10-05 1.321961 2.417541 4.204356 7.262173 12.272588 20.034472 32.791947
2025-10-12 1.153391 2.245065 4.123036 7.497309 13.282145 22.618432 38.562798
2025-10-19 1.017066 2.098557 4.053497 7.727455 14.292301 25.289303 44.731172
2025-10-26 0.878004 1.917400 3.888529 7.756345 14.946094 27.422582 50.211941
2025-11-02 0.732334 1.692834 3.603450 7.516124 15.077122 28.657943 54.263704
2025-11-09 0.599587 1.466894 3.275871 7.139685 14.895460 29.301281 57.309468
2025-11-16 0.513715 1.324801 3.092199 7.015865 15.169397 30.781515 61.987692
2025-11-23 0.442784 1.204732 2.940204 6.945510 15.561781 32.565928 67.498979
2025-11-30 0.406635 1.161370 2.950320 7.225063 16.708610 35.931745 76.389624
2025-12-07 0.359341 1.079405 2.858042 7.262860 17.347863 38.354654 83.663840
2025-12-14 0.317736 1.002996 2.765373 7.284444 17.951427 40.761065 91.129655
2025-12-21 0.281246 0.932242 2.673958 7.293882 18.525718 43.158186 98.794448
2025-12-28 0.278378 0.958592 2.835210 7.945039 20.653488 49.069814 114.369897
2026-01-04 0.258029 0.927591 2.839648 8.200763 21.876048 53.119225 126.299913
2026-01-11 0.239383 0.897673 2.841943 8.450857 23.113105 57.313199 138.904211
2026-01-18 0.215082 0.843447 2.766437 8.482270 23.811451 60.347544 149.188265
2026-01-25 0.184816 0.761073 2.594040 8.221338 23.734854 61.576425 155.485070
2026-02-01 0.154797 0.671165 2.381493 7.812323 23.218508 61.707994 159.248959